Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 3.403248 4.079399 4.835272 5.740008 6.790428 7.968414 9.386180
2025-05-25 2.317323 3.142204 4.164328 5.512301 7.230092 9.331648 12.081053
2025-06-01 1.741207 2.621544 3.810436 5.507485 7.836798 10.886536 15.139128
2025-06-08 1.372474 2.265546 3.565122 5.549276 8.446549 12.456607 18.343235
2025-06-15 1.095954 1.968354 3.326655 5.528445 8.922460 13.850484 21.408104
2025-06-22 0.840963 1.641166 2.971744 5.255795 8.960996 14.585783 23.565790
2025-06-29 0.690462 1.452659 2.796868 5.223884 9.339661 15.831275 26.555477
2025-07-06 0.571921 1.293376 2.638930 5.186199 9.687069 17.039068 29.567242
2025-07-13 0.523039 1.256915 2.690906 5.513478 10.670368 19.335171 34.471410
2025-07-20 0.463606 1.185065 2.662527 5.685808 11.394657 21.255573 38.901728
2025-07-27 0.423693 1.146363 2.691006 5.964472 12.330774 23.600146 44.200068
2025-08-03 0.364155 1.048943 2.582631 5.958329 12.734150 25.045004 48.059885
2025-08-10 0.296166 0.916170 2.379868 5.740417 12.725135 25.782624 50.796933
2025-08-17 0.236600 0.788636 2.164893 5.464033 12.567296 26.231737 53.053656
2025-08-24 0.202300 0.720196 2.074213 5.443117 12.918380 27.651176 57.168784
2025-08-31 0.176148 0.667957 2.013120 5.479069 13.388414 29.329987 61.876880
2025-09-07 0.151293 0.612281 1.932557 5.456673 13.727897 30.774725 66.233250
2025-09-14 0.120998 0.528737 1.760905 5.186574 13.489096 31.038869 68.319844
2025-09-21 0.103822 0.484639 1.689196 5.154843 13.782172 32.404565 72.655622
2025-09-28 0.089035 0.444144 1.619570 5.117534 14.056192 33.747232 77.027100
2025-10-05 0.085601 0.447119 1.681657 5.440990 15.219141 37.056546 85.596113
2025-10-12 0.078542 0.432935 1.687727 5.611321 16.025816 39.650502 92.837431
2025-10-19 0.074380 0.429927 1.729279 5.886778 17.117100 42.936853 101.704909